Trading Crude Oil Futures (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

Crude oil trades around the world. Crude oil is one of the most heavily traded commodities in the world. Every day perhaps billions of dollars worth of crude oil gets traded. New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) is considered to be the hub of crude oil trading in the world.

Ever heard of Light Sweet Crude? Light Sweet Crude is the high grade, low sulfur content crude oil that is more easily refined than the thicker oils. Now oil coming out of some of the Venezuelan and Saudi Arabian Oil wells contains high sulfur content and requires special refineries that only process the high grade sulfur crude oil.

Light Sweet Crude is the high grade, low sulfur content crude oil that is more easily refined than the thicker oils. Now crude oil coming out of some of the Venezuelan and Saudi Arabian Oil wells contains high sulfur content and requires special refineries that only process the high grade sulfur crude oil. On the other hand Iraqi oil is close to the ground and has very low sulfur content. Ever heard of Light Sweet Crude? Sulfur content in oil is considered to be very important. Lower the sulfur content in crude oil, the easier and less costly will be its refining. The higher the sulfur content in the crude oil, the more expensive its refining will be.

NYMEX offers you a host of futures as well as options contracts based on crude oil. At NYMEX, you can trade crude oil futures contracts based on Dubai Crude Oil, Brent North Sea Crude Oil, differential between the light sweet crude oil and the four domestic grades of crude oil and a few more. Oil options are also traded on NYMEX. Now Dubai Crude Oil Futures contract is very popular.

A barrel of oil contains 42 US gallons. Crude oil is traded in US dollars per barrel. In other words, the price of crude oil is quoted in US dollars per barrel. Now trading at NYMEX can be open outcry during the regular treading hours as well as electronic web based trading after hours.

A barrel of oil contains 42 US gallons. Crude oil is traded in US dollars per barrel. In other words, the price of crude oil is quoted in US dollars per barrel. Now trading at NYMEX can be through open outcry during the regular treading hours as well as electronic web based trading after hours.

You can visit the website of NYMEX and read a more about the crude oil trading that takes place at that exchange. Now trading crude oil futures contracts require you to be in tune with the market sentiment. Trends in crude oil market don't develop suddenly and they don't reverse suddenly. This is something good for you as a crude oil futures trader.

When a trend in the crude oil market develops, it may last for a few months to a year. It all depends on the global supply and demand situation of the crude oil. If you can spot a trend in the crude oil market in its early stage and ride it till its reversal, you can make a good profit. Now, just keep this in mind that crude oil prices are highly susceptible to global geopolitical situation and react violently to any political global uncertainty. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

Trading Crude Oil Futures (Part I)

By Ahmad Hassam

Again crude oil prices have started rising. The recent price of crude oil was quoted as $ 80 per barrel. It is being predicted that the price will soon reach the $ 100 per barrel mark. One thing should be clear to you. Energy markets will be a major focal point in the global financial makers and the global economy for many years to come. The key to understanding energy trading is to understand oil, natural gas, gasoline and heating oil futures.

You must be thinking that crude oil trading is being done only between different countries or hedge funds or highly wealthy individuals. For your information, crude oil contracts can also be traded by retail traders like you and me. NYMEX trades futures and options contracts for crude oil, natural gas, heating oil, gasoline, coal, electricity and propane. NYMEX is also home to trading in metals. Trading in energy futures is centralized at the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), the world's largest physical commodity futures exchange.

For smaller traders NYMEX offers e-mini contracts for oil and natural gas that also trades on the GLOBEX network of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME). Trading in NYMEX is conducted in two divisions: 1) The NYMEX Division and 2) The COMEX Division. You can trade crude oil futures. If you haven't done futures trading before than before you start trading crude oil futures, you should first educate yourself on how to trade futures contracts. The good thing is that you can paper trade on your demo account with the use of virtual money. Paper trading is something that should not be missed by even professional traders. Practice makes your trading perfect!

One of the most important variables for any economy is the interest rates. Very high interest rates can make the economy come to a screeching halt as most businesses won't be able to afford high interest rate loans. On the other extreme, very low interest rates can make inflation too high in the economy. Now there is a relationship between the oil prices and the interest rates. The relationship between energy and interest rates is very important to understand. This relationship ties together the two most important aspects of the global economy: energy (the fuel for growth) and the interest rates (the catalyst that powers borrowed money to do things). Next to interest rates, energy and especially oil is the center of the universe not only for the industry but also for the financial markets.

High oil prices are considered to be inflationary and tend to slow down the economy. Low oil prices are always considered good for the economy. As a trader, you should know this fact that oil price rise often tends to slow down the economy and lower retail sales as well as consumer confidence with lower traffic on the highways. Sometimes the rise in oil prices leads to the increase in interest rates through the bond market and the actions of central banks and the other times the opposite happens. Rise in oil prices if often inflationary. Now all these effects have a time lag factor built in them. If the crude oil prices increase or jump suddenly like that in'73, it takes time for the increased oil prices to start affecting the other factors in the economy.

Now you need to understand the Peak Oil Concept. Peak oil is the concept that the world oil production has peaked and the production of oil will never be as high again. Oil prices and the interest rates generally move in the same direction when viewed over long periods of time.

Oil production in countries like Venezuela, Iran and Nigeria has peaked and is going down. Non OPEC sources of oil like North Sea and Mexico are also showing sign of declining production. There has been no major oil well discovery for the last few decades. Some people consider the Peak Oil idea as controversial but this concept is increasingly plausible given the state of the global oil industry.

Now you should keep these facts in the background of your mind as a trader. In any case, most of the experts now agree that in the next 10-20 years, the oil production will peak and after that it will start declining. 1) Demand fluctuates but supply of oil is finite. 2) The world runs on oil and any threat to the supply of oil often leads to rising prices. As an oil trader your primary goal is to consider the effects of events on the supply of oil and correlate this effect with your charts. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Trade Dow Futures . Learn Commodity Trading !

Santa Claus Rally

By Ahmad Hassam

Markets tend to react to the outside events. Markets react to the seasons. Markets react to holidays. Markets react to political crisis. Markets are what the people are thinking. The day before the President's day is the worst day and the day after the Easter is the worst day after. However, you should keep in mind that a lot of other factors also come into play and you have a lot of room for error. The next best holiday bets are the Labor Day and the Memorial Day because they fall before the first day of trading in September and June respectively.

The best time of the year to own stocks is the Santa Claus rally which for all practical purposes is the 17 day stretch from December 21 to January 7. This is the best time of the year. Most of the folks usually feel fairly good about themselves around this time of the year.

FED tends to lower interest rates during holidays in order to go into the New Year with less of a worry if the economy is slowing down. There is a low trading volume which tends to exaggerate the trend if the economy is not doing well and is slowing down. However, when you are dealing with seasonality, you should keep these facts in your mind:

1) More and more people have real time access to information and larger amounts of capital than at any time in the past. The market is not longer static. The seasonal effect may get interrupted by other events.

2) At the end of the year, institutional investors want to make their results look as good as possible to their shareholders and tend to buy the stocks and so on. Institutional investors like mutual funds, hedge funds and insurance companies have become important players in the markets. So in case of an event free environment, seasonal tendencies may hold up fairly well.

3) These are the times for day traders and swing traders. With fewer people willing to hold stocks for longer periods, it is very difficult to predict seasonality. The days of long term investing or what you call buy and hold are dead! Frequent market crashes have taught the investing public that investing for the long term is fairly risky. So there is more short term trading going on.

4) The recent market crash was the result of CMO and Default Swaps bringing down the banks and Insurance companies in ways that had not been anticipated or foreseen by the analysts. Many had assumed that derivate securities are safe. Infact they have highly unpredictable tendencies. Derivates and outside the market trading activities can result in highly unpredictable patterns.

Many things are changing. The world is always changing. There is a change in demographics also taking place. With the aging of the population, the overall trend will be towards more income producing investments. So with everyone talking about the seasonal tendencies in the market, it reliability becomes less diminished. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. First trade on your Forex Demo Account!

Guerilla Trader (Part II)

By Ahmad Hassam

A scalper is also a seeker of short term profits of the level of 25-50 pips. A scalper might use a 10 minute chart to follow the market, a 1 hour chart to determine the long term trend and the 5 minute chart to time the entries and exits for each trade. Scalper is a workable profile for a small retail trader. However, you should be able to view the overall trend of the market to gauge whether you are trading with or against the prevailing trend.

A Day trader is looking for larger profits something like 50-100 pips. A Day Trader might use a 15 minute chart to follow the market, a 4 hour chart to determine the long term trend and the 5 minute chart for making the entry and exit. Day trader is a good profile for a new trader.

Day trader is a good profile for a new trader. However, sometimes you might not want to close the trade at the end of the day as the trade is in profit and you are expecting more profits if you continue with the trade overnight. There is a rollover cost if you rollover your trades overnight. Be sure if you want to day trade, you know your broker policy on rollovers and the rollover cost for you. A Day trader is looking for larger profits something like 50-100 pips.

A position trader is always for the lookout for big market moves that can get him/her 100-500 pips per trade. He/she might use a 1 hour chart to track the market, the 15 minute chart to time entries and exits and 1 day charts for trend determination.

The longer you hold the position, the more you are at risk of getting the market surprises that no one can predict. A market surprise can be a sharp change in direction or volatility often occurring as the result of a major surprise announcement. A position trader is always for the lookout for big market moves that can get him/her 100-500 pips per trade. He/she might use a 1 hour chart to track the market, the 15 minute chart to time entries and exits and 1 day charts for trend determination.

If you aim for a 1/3 risk/reward ratio, a Guerilla will risk 5-10 pips per trade, a scalper will risk 15-20 pips per trade, a day trader will risk 25-30 pips per trade and a position trader will risk 40-50 pips per trade. Each profile requires different scales of charts and time frames but also indicators and money management parameters.

Always try to maintain a risk/reward ratio of at most 1/3. This means the chances are 3 to 1 that you are going to make a winning trade. In other words, in the long run, you will have 3 winning trades for each losing trade. If you aim for a 1/3 risk/reward ratio, a Guerilla will risk 5-10 pips per trade, a scalper will risk 15-20 pips per trade, a day trader will risk 25-30 pips per trade and a position trader will risk 40-50 pips per trade. Each profile requires different scales of charts and time frames but also indicators and money management parameters.

Do you want to become a good trader or a bad trader? Always keep in mind that in forex trading a 10 pips move up or down can easily occur within seconds or minutes very quickly without any reason or rhyme. No two traders can be exactly alike. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. First trade on your Forex Demo Account!

Determining The Primary Trend

By Ahmad Hassam

A picture is worth more than a thousand words. Trading would be almost impossible without charts and technical analysis. Trading is all about anticipating and predicating rather than forecasting. Technical analysis is the best tool a trader can have.

Primary trend is the direction of the market that offers the least resistance forward making money. When you follow a primary trend in a bull market you look for strong stocks and in a bear market you look for stocks showing weaknesses. The most important thing that you should in a market is its primary trend. You use the following tools to determine the primary trend! Knowing the primary trend and trading in its direction increases your chances of making money. So how do you find the primary trend and what tools you need to determine the primary trend?

Trendlines: To correctly draw a rising trendline on the chart, start with the lowest low on the chart and connect it to the lowest low preceding the highest high in the chart without bothering about the prices between the two points. Knowing how to draw and use trendlines gives you an excellent start on any trade. Similarly to draw the down trendline, draw a line connecting the highest high on the chart to the highest high preceding the lowest low of the chart without passing through the prices between the two prices. Key support is the area above which the prices have held for sometimes. Key resistance is the area above which the prices have not been able to rise for sometimes. A market breaking above the key resistance or below the key support is a signals a new trend.

Moving Averages: Support level is the price where the prices stop falling and the buyers step in overcoming the selling pressure. A break in the support level is an indication that more weakness may be ahead. Moving averages are sues to smooth out the market's trend over a given period of time and serve as an important support and resistance levels.

A break above the resistance level is an indication that the market is going strong. Resistance level is the price where prices stop rising and the sellers overcome the buying pressure.

Oscillators: Oscillators are technical tools whose movements up or below a certain level give you an important trading signal. What is more important to know is the fact that oscillators produce useful mathematical data that can help you tell whether the market is overbought or oversold and whether the momentum of the primary trend in the market is still strong or there is a potential change in the primary trend ahead? Two important oscillators that you should be familiar with are RSI and MACD. Oscillators are graphic depictions of points derived from the mathematical formulas that are plotted below the price charts. Knowing these mathematical formulas is not important as a trader. MACD is a highly popular technical indicator and is widely used by the traders in divergence trading.

Bollinger Bands: Bollinger bands are calculated by plotting points one or more standard deviations above and below the 20-day moving average. However, you can calculate Bollinger Bands with any moving average. Bollinger bands are also known as volatility bands or envelopes. Bollinger bands give you visual evidence when the market has travelled too far in any one direction. After you identify the primary trend in the market, you should determine your trading timeframe. These timeframes are a sort of vague and can range from a few weeks to months. Short time frame for market timers is a few days to a few weeks. Long term time frame is something like six months. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam is a Harvard University Graduate. Try these cash printing Forex Signals from heaven. First trade on your Forex Demo Account!

Day Trading - Is It A Real Opportunity Or Just A Waste Of Time?

By Daniel Waser

There is a well known activity on the stock market that involves the buying and selling of security in a single day that is referred to as day trading. If you are interested to participate actively in this activity, take the time to learn all you can on this particular activity. Anyone who wishes to master the activity of day trading must regard this as a real business-learn the art of the trade, be willing to learn, find the strength to rise from every failure and benefit from the lessons that is present from every temporary setback.

This activity provides liquidity in the stock market and keeps the market active. To be successful in day trading, one needs to have up to date information.

To be successful, one needs to master the psychology of day trading. The results are unforeseen and cannot be forecasted. A potential investor must be equipped with the right tools to be successful in this undertaking.

Day trading is just like any other form of business-there is no absolute guarantee that you will make millions of dollars from this trade. Day trading-is it for everyone? Day trading risk capital and it is something that most would find it affordable to lose.

The rule to remember is, day traders normally hold on to a position for a few minutes. It takes practice and training to build competence. You need to possess the cunningness of a sly fox and the bravery of a lion to make it big in this business. Keep your memories sharp and alert and avoid losing money at all costs.

Never get emotionally involved over one single transaction, and follow the trends of the stock market. A day trader's success is measured by the amount f profit he collects in a single day. Practice careful risk management if you want to be successful in this business.

Make sure you do understand the mechanics of Forex day trading before you participate. One can expect to see a day trader constantly monitoring the stock market through a computer terminal to keep in touch with the happenings of the market. It is imperative that the right information acquired at the right time can help one make an informed decision.

Do not be surprised to hear that day traders find this to be a most exciting activity. Day traders do believe in their own indicatory but they too are that there is no 100% in life that it will work. Make it a habit to sell on good days and buy on bad.

This trading involves the purchase of securities in a single day. Be forewarned that this form of trading comes with a lot of risk. Take time to think carefully and decide if this is right for you.

Day trading involves a lot of risk. So is this endeavor a game of luck rather then skill? Amazingly, a trader can expect to lose money from nine transactional and cover all his losses and make extra profit by succeeding in the tenth. Day trading is lots of fun, but it can be challenging too. - 31987

About the Author:

The smartest thing you can do is to get to know about the common Forex trading mistakes before you start your forex trading business. Visit how to trade forex NOW and download the free report "7 Mistakes To Avoid For Beginner Forex Traders" at http://howtoforex.org/.

Leveraged Short ETFs

By Ahmad Hassam

You can short stocks. You can even short ETFs. Have you ever heard of Short ETFs? The ProShares Short Dow 30 ETF (DOG) will return the inverse of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) on daily basis. If the DJIA falls by 2%, DOG rises by 2% and if the DJIA rises by 2%, DOG will fall by 2%. Short ETF returns the inverse of the index it is linked to.

Short ETFs are also known as Inverse ETFs or Bear ETFs. During the past few years, the number of Short ETFs has risen dramatically. Short ETFs not only cover the major stock indices like the S&P 500 or the DJIA but also different sectors like the energy, utilities or technology. You will even find Inverse ETFs on currencies now.

You will even find leverage short ETFs. A leveraged short ETF gives the trader leverage without the use of margins. The ProShares UltraShort Dow 30 ETF (DXD) rises 2% when the DJIA falls by 1%.

Over the years, short ETFs have risen in popularity with the investors and hedge funds. Short ETFs give you an excellent opportunity to profit from the volatility in the market and the major indices.

Before the introduction of short ETFs, a trader had to actually short sell stocks to take advantage of a market drop. Short ETFs are a great product as they have created new opportunities for traders.

ETFs have opened up a whole new way of profiting from the markets. The trader had to go against the trend and buy or else move into cash or fixed income in the past if the market was dropping. Traders are not allowed to sell short stocks or ETFs in their retirement accounts. Short and leveraged ETFs provide traders with new opportunities.

ETFs also provide you with the opportunity to take advantage of the global market swings. China is one example that garners a lot of attention. The Shanghai Index in China rose 100% in 2007. In the first quarter of 2008, the Shanghai Index was down 35%.

The ProShares family of ETFs introduced the Ultrashort FTSE/Xinhua China 25 ETF (FXP). Now if you want to trade the fall of Chinese stocks, you can trade FXP ETF. In the past, traders who wanted to benefit from the fall of Chinese stocks could only short Chinese stocks that were traded in US Stock Exchanges.

As a long term investor you can take advantage of short ETFs to hedge your portfolio position. Assume you have a portfolio of $100,000 composed of 75% stocks and 25% money market fixed income.

The forecast of the market for the next six months is not good. But you are reluctant to sell your stocks due to tax reasons. Suppose the market falls by 10%. Your stock portfolio falls by 7.5% assuming the same ratio between the market and your portfolio. - 31987

About the Author:

Mr. Ahmad Hassam has done Masters from Harvard University. Try This Cash Printing Forex Signal Service From Heaven! Learn Swing Trading!